# brain of mat kelcey

## pseudocounts and the good-turing estimation (part1)

April 03, 2011 at 03:04 PM | categories: pseudocounts, statistics | View Comments

say we are running the bar at a soldout bad religion concert. the bar serves beer, scotch and water and we decide to record orders over the night so that we can know how much to order for tomorrow's gig...drink#salesbeer1000scotch300water200using these numbers we can predict a number of things..what is the chance the next person will order a beer?it's a pretty simple probability; 1000 beers / 1500 total drinks = 0.66 or 66%what is the chance the next person will order a water?also straightforward; 200 waters / 1500 total drinks = 0.14 or 14%now say we run the t-shirt stand...

old projects...

- latent semantic analysis via the singular value decomposition (for dummies)
- semi supervised naive bayes
- statistical synonyms
- round the world tweets
- decomposing social graphs on twitter
- do it yourself statistically improbable phrases
- should i burn it?
- the median of a trillion numbers
- deduping with resemblance metrics
- simple supervised learning / should i read it?
- audioscrobbler experiments
- chaoscope experiment